Hunter Pence: Righthanded Bat of Choice

Due to the fact that I've been on vacation all week, I've had a lot of time to stay glued to twitter, MLBTradeRumors, etc, etc. Perhaps too much. So let me get this out of the way before I say anything else: I'm very excited that Hunter Pence is a Philadelphia Phillie and I cannot wait to watch what is about to take place over the next few months.

We did give up a great package for a good player. The one prospect that really makes me uncomfortable about the trade is pitcher, Jarred Cosart. He was drafted in the late rounds a few years ago but really exploded in the Phils' minor league system. He throws a high nineties fastball with a decent curve and hasn't walked too many hitters. To me, the only thing keeping him from becoming a ML ace, is possible elbow problems. He throws across his body with a three-quarter arm slot. He shined in the futures game this year, striking out two in an inning of work. Here are his career minor league stats (courtesy baseball-reference.com): 203.2 INN, 181 K, 66 BB, 10 HR, and a 3.67 ERA. Pretty darn good for your first 200 innings of pro ball.

Jonathan Singleton, another player included in the deal, I'm a little more okay with trading. He is a firstbaseman by trade that the Phils tried to make an outfielder. It didn't really pan out as planned as he just hit better when he played first. And with Ryan Howard at first, there's no room for Singleton (who was still around 2-3 years away from seeing the big leagues). He's showed flashes of power and production as well as posted some decent on-base numbers. Josh Zeid, another player in the deal has posted some impressive strikeout totals since he was drafted but had posted a 5.65 ERA (BBR) this season. There's also a player to be named that rounds out the four prospects sent to Houston.

This brings me to Pence. From what I've seen of him, as well as what I've read about him over the past 72 hours, leads me to believe that the Phillies are a better team today because they added a good player. He improves our lineup on a day-to-day regular season basis but because of his slow bat, struggles against elite pitching. Once October rolls around, facing Tim Lincecum, Zack Grienke, or Yovani Gallardo may not look as different as it might have a few weeks ago. The goal of getting a righthanded hitting outfielder was to give Howard some protection in the five-hole. Pence may upgrade that slightly, but he strikes out a lot and doesn't walk too much. Something pitchers aren't afraid to go after.

His batting average may also be slightly deceiving, his batting average for balls in play (BABIP) is very high which contributes to his over .300 average. Michael Lewis described it in the book Moneyball that sooner or later the groundballs are going to go to the infielders and the texas leaguers are going hang up there long enough for someone to catch. Regression.

By no means am I saying that Hunter Pence sucks. There's a lot of great things to be said about the outfielder as well. But we won't dwell on all that because we're all about to see it all. I'll just say that my favorite part about Pence's game is that he's a ballplayer. He hustles hard and plays the game at full speed. Roy Oswalt said that he had an aura in the clubhouse as a rookie. That is someone that you want to have on your team. Ballplayers win (see Utley, Chase; Pedrioa, Dustin). And I sure hope that he gives us every chance to do just that.

Maybe I'm spoiled that Ruben Amaro has worked some great trades heavily favoring the Phillies over the past few years, I'm just not familiar with what a fair trade feels like. Maybe I'm too conservative when it comes to worrying about the distant future. But one thing I'm sure of is that the Phils are a better ballclub.

-Dan

NFL Week 16: Playoff Seeding Preview

          Am I the only the one that gets slightly annoyed when an NFL pregame show analyst or an ESPN talking head chuckles and proclaims: "Hah, what a weird year in the NFL." Really? This year's weird? I've only heard that same sentence spoken every season since I was barely old enough to make fun of Shannon Sharpe.  Didn't we, just last year, have two undefeated teams going into Week 15?  In 2008, didn't the Arizona Cardinals finish 9-7 in the regular season and get written off before they even played a postseason game, only to come within minutes of winning the Super Bowl? Enough already. The NFL is weird some years. Most years, in fact.          
          I won't ignore however, how strange it is that we have more quality teams than usual with respectable records that will be left out in the cold come playoff time this year.  In the previous four seasons, there have only been two teams to win at least 10 games and miss the playoffs: the 2007 Cleveland Browns, and the 2008 New England Patriots.  This year alone, I predict that we will have as many as four. My projections:

Category I: The First-Round Byes
1N. Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
2N. Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)
1A. New England Patriots (13-3)
2A. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

Yes, that's a '3' you see in Atlanta's loss column.  Quickly:

• Matt Ryan is 19-1 at home in his career, and hasn't lost at the Georgia Dome in well over a year.
• The Falcons have won eight straight football games. Eight. That's half of a season.
• Surprisingly, the only team to ever beat Matt Ryan at home is the same squad that handed the Falcons their most recent defeat eight weeks ago...the Philadelphia Eagles.  Even more surprisingly, those two games weren't really games at all; they were blowouts.  If you combine the scores from the Eagles/Falcons matchup in '09 and the one eight weeks ago, you get a 65-24 aggregate.

           So is Atlanta for real? I think so.  But should the Falcon faithful be a little nervous at the possibility of their former franchise quarterback rolling into town in his new digs with a Super Bowl berth on the line? Absolutely.  I think the home win streak gets snapped by the defending champion New Orleans Saints on Monday night, but the Falcons still lock up the top NFC seed with a win in Carolina the following Sunday.  I think the Eagles, however, will win out. While the line on the game this weekend is out of control, (PHI -13.5?! Really, Vegas? Didn't Joe Webb prove last week that he can kind of run around and, you know, do stuff?) they should still get the 'W', and I don't see the Cowboys hanging with them in Philly.  You take that, and either the Jets or the Packers handing Chicago their fifth loss, and the Iggs are one win away from their sixth NFC championship appearance in ten seasons.
          Meanwhile in the AFC, it's New England and the mortals.  With how well Vick is playing, it's a testament to how phenomenal Brady's been this year that he is still the favorite to be the MVP of the league.  They're blowing decent teams out, beating good teams on the road, and haven't lost at home this season.  I think the Pats will ice the AFC race this weekend in Buffalo, and their third-string guys will lose a close one Week 17 against Miami, for a final mark of 13-3.  Pittsburgh, on the other hand, doesn't look nearly as strong. They're banged up, they're sputtering offensively, and really don't look any better than the other four AFC playoff teams.  But, they possess two things that will work heavily in their favor: an easy final two games (CAR, @CLE) and the AFC North tiebreaker. For those reasons, the Steelers will enjoy a weekend off this January.

Category II: The Other Division Champions
3N. Chicago Bears (11-5)
4N. St. Louis Rams (8-8)
3A. San Diego Chargers (10-6)
4A. Indianapolis Colts (10-6)

          The NFC West race (I guess that's the word for it), may have possibly hit rock bottom this past weekend with all four teams losing by a combined total of 64 points.  Not only does this add additional embarrassment to a division that certainly doesn't need any more of it, but it leaves the door wide open for a 7-9 division "champion" to host a playoff game during Wild Card Weekend.  Yikes.  Maybe that possibility has me biased into picking the Rams to win out and represent the West with a cool 8-8 mark.  Why not?  They will host the Niners this weekend and then go to Qwest Field to take on the Seahawks on the final Sunday of the season.  Both of those games are winnable.  The other NFC division champion is already crowned, as the Bears dominated the Vikings Monday night to clinch the North. Since I don't see the Jets winning back-to-back road games in Pittsburgh and Chicago, I like the Bears this weekend.  But then there's the showdown with Green Bay at Lambeau Field next week.  Assuming Rodgers is healthy and can take care of business against the Giants this weekend, the Pack will be playing for their playoff lives and the Bears will be fighting to retain a first round bye.  Are Jay Cutler and the Bears really going to go undefeated in their division this year?  Maybe I'm still in denial that they're even a good team. Either way, I got the Packers.
          It pains me to back off of my preseason stance that the Chiefs would go 10-6 and make the playoffs this year, especially since the Chiefs currently sit alone atop the AFC West and, in all likelihood, will win at least 10 games when it's all said and done. I went back and forth a million times with the idea of picking the Chiefs to win their final two games (TEN and OAK, both at home...) to finish 11-5 and play in a wild card game, but I honestly just don't feel it.  Between Jeff Fisher trying to keep his job (or showing the rest of the league that he's qualified for a better one), Kerry Collins trying to prove he isn't washed up, and Jason Campbell's Raiders possibly playing for a playoff spot that they are somehow not mathematically eliminated from, there's too much friskiness to comfortably ride the Chiefs.  The Chargers, meanwhile, get to feast on the checked out Bengals and the Denver Tebows to warm up for January.  So, I'll go ahead and take the Chargers, and simultaneously cue myself up for a healthy dose of karma when the Chiefs win out or the Chargers lay an egg in Denver.  In other news, are any Colts fans nervous about the game this weekend in Oakland? I would be.  As mentioned above, the Raiders are still somehow in the playoff hunt and have been far less comedic this season than they have been in years past. That being said, it's logical to assume that Peyton & Co. get it done these next two Sundays, finishing 10-6 and AFC South champions with a tiebreaker over Jacksonville.

Did I just read that the Raiders are one win in Kansas City away from being the first team
in NFL history to go 6-0 in the division and miss the playoffs?  Is that good?

Category III: The Wild Card Teams
5N. New Orleans Saints (11-5)
6N. Green Bay Packers (10-6)
5A. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
6A. New York Jets (11-5)

          Monday night's showdown between Atlanta and New Orleans could be the game of the year.  While the possibility of a Saints' repeat as NFC South champions seems bleak at best, New Orleans had been clicking on all cylinders before being bested by Baltimore this past weekend.  And because of that, nothing is certain in New Orleans.  Did you know that if they lose these next two to Atlanta and Tampa, they could lose their playoff spot to a Giants team that doesn't even have to run the table?  That being said, I'm picking the Saints this weekend for one reason: I'm not sold on Atlanta's defense.  The jury still has to be out on a secondary that let Carson Palmer's Bungles hang 32 on them, and they will certainly be earning their living this weekend against Drew Brees.  Something about the Saints feels right here.
          The Ravens and Jets are virtual locks for the AFC wild card spots at this point.  Both would have to lose out for Jacksonville or Kansas City to sneak into the postseason, and both only have one game apiece left on their schedules that they have any business losing (The Jets are in Chicago this week, and the Ravens are in Cleveland for the Art Modell Bowl).  You can't help but feel for the Jags, Chiefs, Giants, and Bucs, who have all strung together quality seasons, but are unlikely to qualify for the postseason despite boasting win totals that usually get your foot in the door.  Doesn't it seem like there are a handful of teams that are supposedly "bad" and well out of playoff contention that are going to give the contenders fits in these last two weeks? Besides the Raiders/Colts and Ravens/Browns contests mentioned above, would it be crazy to think that the Bills don't steal one from the Pats or Jets? And, as an Eagles fan, I don't feel nearly as comfortably as I should with my team squaring off Week 17 against a 5-9 squad with Jon Kitna under center. That's the NFL in 2010.  Anyway, with the projected matchups set, here are my early playoff picks:

WC: Packers over Bears, Saints over Rams, Chargers over Jets, Colts over Ravens
DIV: Falcons over Packers, Eagles over Saints, Patriots over Colts, Chargers over Steelers
CONF: Falcons over Eagles, Patriots over Chargers
SB: Patriots over Falcons

Let's hope I don't go four months without writing again.
-TJ

Brief 2010 World Series Predictions

It may not be the World Series that the country, Major League Baseball, Phillies fans, Yankees fans, and everyone had hoped for (if you know me, it clearly wasn't what I had hoped for). But don't lose hope (or blink) because this fall classic is going to be exciting. One of the league's premier runs scoring offenses against the senior circuit's best arms.

The Giants come in as the underdogs to me. They've proven this entire season that they know how to put pressure on their opponents and win close ballgames. With a (in my opinion) below average offense, their pitching certainly makes up for it. When on, Tim Lincecum is as good as gold. Matt Cain rarely gives you a poor outing. If Jonathan Sanchez is on, he will most likely beat you. Then there's the young rookie, Madison Bumgarner, who has shown more poise on the mound than half of the veterans who are postseason first-timers.

Then there is the Rangers in the other corner. They have an unbelievable offense that can hurt you in so many ways. They get on base, they steal, they make productive outs, and they got some pop as well. Elvis Andrus is quietly blossoming into a star in this league. Their pitching has been getting the job done. And as much as I don't enjoy praising players that don't need anymore praise, Cliff Lee has been an October stud throughout the past two autumns and I really don't expect much else to change.

Predictions

Game 1: Lincecum can't get the changeup down in the zone. Rangers 7, Giants 2.
Game 2: Cain outduels CJ Wilson as Giants 'win by torture' again. Giants 3, Rangers 2.
Game 3: Nelson Cruz goes off on Sanchez, homers twice. Rangers 5, Giants 2.
Game 4: Andrus and Josh Hamilton's bats outhit Andres Torres and Aubrey Huff. Rangers 8, Giants 7.
Game 5: Rangers take it at home behind Lee as Giants go into panic mode by third inning. Rangers 3, Giants 1.

Rangers in five games.
MVP: Elvis Andrus

As much as it pains me to not see the Phillies in this World Series, it is about time some of the players on these teams became household names.

No Such Thing as Superstition

So now I'm convinced. Being superstitious is a waste of time, it is not real. I never really thought that it would really make a difference but playing the game of baseball for my whole life gives way to giving in to superstitious habits now and then. So its only typical that I carried them over to watching my beloved Phillies. But to no avail, they've (the superstitious habits) failed me. Wearing certain shirts on certain days. Not wearing my alternate Phillies colored hat on gamedays. Not going on twitter during the game. How I sit during the game. Yea, all those tendencies failed me. They failed me last year when the Phils lost in the World Series and I bought into them again this year. What was I thinking?

It was as if I could help the Phillies win. As if I did something wrong when they lost. I screwed up the equilibrium in the universe that affected Citizen's Bank Park all the way from State College. I know it sounds ridiculous because it IS ridiculous. And now I'm done. Whatever is meant to be will happen (which is something I've also believed in since I can remember (I'm a hypocrite?)).

Guess what else I thought prevented the Phillies from doing well? Blogging. So for the few that had been to this top-notch blog before, that my buddy TJ and I started over the summer, I bet you were wondering where we had gone. Well, I've returned and am hopefully here to stay. Part of the absence was due to laziness and then a ridiculous amount of schoolwork. But when I did feel like blogging, I couldn't pull myself to do it because I was semi-convinced that it would prevent the Phils from doing well. Done with that, whatever is meant to be will happen. Which brings me to why Giants won this series.

First lets get this out of the way so you don't think my bias and bitterness is playing into the post: the Giants played really well and beat the Phils fair and square. They are the National League champions and I'm not taking that away from them. Congratulations and all that.

But there isn't one position player that I would rather have on the Philllies that is on the Giants. You could make a case for Buster Posey, but right now, at this point in their careers, give me Chooch from Monday to Sunday. On paper the Phils should have taken care of business in four or five games. The talent on each roster within each pitching staff is comparable, but at the plate, it isn't even close. Look at the lineups, Pat Burrell was hitting cleanup at one point for the Giants. He wouldn't even start for the Phillies. But games aren't settled on paper.

The Giants caught some breaks in this series. The Phils started off by hitting a few balls well off of Tim Lincecum but they were at fielders and playable. Cody Ross who didn't have a great average against the Phils in 2010 (in a handful of at-bats from being with Florida) was picked up in late-August. He was only picked up by San Francisco because they didn't want their division rival, Padres, to acquire him. What did he do this series? Just set the tone in game one with two homeruns off of the eventual 2010 Cy Young award winner, Roy Halladay. That's it. A game in which Halladay didn't get a called strike three that would have ended the fifth inning against Pat Burrell. Burrell then doubled off the wall to score a run and Juan Uribe then followed with a groundball single that scored Burrell's pinch runner, Nate Shierholtz. Tough loss.

In game three Cole Hamels made a good pitch with two outs that Babe Ross just hit into left field for an RBI single. The pitch was away and somehow Ross pulled it. Not especially good hitting but it worked out. Aubrey Huff then hit a seeing-eye groundball that just got past Chase Utley that scored another run. Later in the game, with two outs Utley misplayed a humpback liner to secondbase that was somehow ruled a single. Tough breaks. Tough dinky hits. Cole shouldn't have surrendered any runs that game but it happened.

Game four included Joe Blanton giving up his usual first inning run, this one on a RBI groundball single with two outs. Later in that game, Jayson Werth hit a ball right on the button with two men on and less than two outs that was directly to the rightfielder. Anywhere else in that spacious outfield, both runs would have scored. Neither runner ended up scoring. A couple innings later, when the Phils had the lead, Chad Durbin was facing Pablo Sandoval, who at the end of the season and thus far through the playoffs couldnt tell a baseball from a paperclip. His struggles were well documented by both television networks covering the games but he decided to remember how to hit just once with two men on, as he disposed of Durbin's fastball into the left-centerfield gap. The Phils would eventually chalk up a loss when the heaviest shortstop in the big leagues hit a walkoff sacrifice fly to cap a rally which was started by an Aubrey Huff seeing-eye groundball single. Bummer, or should I say Bumgarner.

image courtesy: Associated Press, yahoo.com

Which brings us to tonight's heartbreaker. The Phillies kept their game five momentum going right into game six as they were right on Jonathan Sanchez scoring two runs off of him in the first. But Sanchez, the pitcher, then singled right through Chase Utley's arms to start the third. After an Andres Torres single off the wall (one which Victorino almost made a great catch on) and a Freddy Sanchez sacrifice bunt, Aubrey Huff singled on a groundball that scored a run. With two outs, Roy Oswalt would then get Buster Posey to hit a tapper down the thirdbase line that Placido Polanco threw away. Game tied up. After the heavy shortstop, who was playing third, homered off the rock solid Ryan Madson to take the lead, the Phils looked like they had something cooking in the bottom half of the eighth. But Carlos Ruiz hit one right on the screws to Aubrey Huff who doubled up Victorino. If you watched, you know the rest of the story. It pains me to type it out.

Giving up groundball singles, hitting balls well that don't fall, and not hitting with runners on base basically sums up the series for the Phillies. They didn't get the two-out RBIs that they needed and the Giants caught some breaks. That's what happens when things are going well for a team, breaks. Heck, I'll admit the Phillies caught some in 2008 on the way to being World Champions. But now I know what it is like to be on the other end of things. It is saddening and it doesn't feel fair. But the game of baseball isn't exactly fair, which is why we love it.

Fantasy Quick Draw: Top 15 Running Backs

*Below in an article I wrote for Digital Sports Daily that has yet to be published.  I will probably have to edit it quite a bit before it goes up on that site, but I wanted to post the original version as well.*

Here are the Top Fifteen running backs to target in your upcoming Fantasy draft. Again, all statistics and points rankings are courtesy of ESPN.com, and are consistent with the scoring settings kept in ESPN standard leagues.

15. Ryan Mathews (SD)
2009 Stats: N/A
2009 End of Season Rank: N/A
DSD Spin: Ryan Mathews is a huge risk for fantasy owners. Norv Turner seems to believe the rookie can carry the majority of the load, but it will likely cost you a second or third round pick to get him. Mathews could cripple you just as easily as he could carry you.

14. LeSean McCoy (PHI)
2009 Stats: 637 rushing yards; 308 receiving yards ; 4 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 39th
DSD Spin: With Westbrook gone, McCoy is the guy in South Philadelphia. However, Pro Bowl fullback Leonard Weaver will certainly vulture some goal-line carries, and don’t forget that newcomer Mike Bell will need to be fed too.

13. Chris “Beanie” Wells (ARI)
2009 Stats: 793 rushing yards; 143 receiving yards ; 7 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 31st
DSD Spin: All signs indicate a breakout year for the former Buckeye. Kurt Warner’s retirement will force Coach Ken Whisenhunt to rely a bit more on a stud out of the backfield. And let’s just say “stud” isn’t a word I would associate with Tim Hightower.

12. Cedric Benson (CIN)
2009 Stats: 1,251 rushing yards; 111 receiving yards ; 6 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 15th
DSD Spin: Benson’s productive 2009 looks like an aberration until you remember one thing: he was supposed to be this good all along. If he can stay focused and out of trouble, there’s no reason Cedric Benson shouldn’t be able to replicate last season’s work.

11. Shonn Greene (NYJ)
2009 Stats: 541 rushing yards; 0 receiving yards ; 2 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 55th
DSD Spin: The Jets ran the ball over 600 times last season. A possibly washed up LaDainian Tomlinson could crash the party, but my guess is that Greene will be trusted with a sweeping majority of the carries, with a possible exception being in certain goal line packages.

10. Ryan Grant (GB)
2009 Stats: 1,253 rushing yards; 197 receiving yards ; 11 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 8th
DSD Spin: After a lackluster 2008, Ryan Grant bounced back last season by approaching 1,500 all-purpose yards and boasting a double-digit touchdown tally. The Pack drafted some promising offensive linemen in April, so Grant’s stock rises modestly.

9. DeAngelo Williams (CAR)
2009 Stats: 1,117 rushing yards; 252 receiving yards ; 7 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 13th
DSD Spin: The situation in Carolina is frustrating from a fantasy standpoint. An injury to Stewart would probably launch Williams into the Top Five, but as it stands right now, you can’t be too sure what you’re going to get from DeAngelo on Sundays.

8. Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)
2009 Stats: 1,108 rushing yards; 261 receiving yards ; 8 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 14th
DSD Spin: Mendenhall’s 2009 effort was impressive for a second year player, but it’s gut check time. The Steelers’ passing attack will be weak for at least the first four games, so let’s see what Rashard’s stats look like when defenses stack the line a bit more.

7. Michael Turner (ATL)
2009 Stats: 871 rushing yards; 35 receiving yards ; 10 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 22nd
DSD Spin: I don’t really see a whole lot to worry about concerning Turner’s production. That is, except injuries…and Jason Snelling…and Ovie Mughelli…and Tony Gonzalez at the goal line…wait a minute.

6. Steven Jackson (STL)
2009 Stats: 1,416 rushing yards; 322 receiving yards ; 4 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 10th
DSD Spin: Good player, bad team, blah, blah, blah. Steven Jackson may be the best fantasy running back in history that no one is ever excited to have.

5. Frank Gore (SF)
2009 Stats: 1,120 rushing yards; 406 receiving yards ; 13 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 6th
DSD Spin: Gore missed almost 3 full games last year, but was still able to score thirteen times to his owners’ delight. Newly acquired Brian Westbrook will certainly be used on some passing downs, but make no mistake, Frank Gore is getting the rock almost every time, and even more often in the red zone.

4. Ray Rice (BAL)
2009 Stats: 1,339 rushing yards; 702 receiving yards ; 8 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 4th
DSD Spin: The case against Rice: he’s small, last year was his only relevant fantasy year to date, and there are bigger guys in Baltimore’s backfield to handle goal line duties. The case for Rice: those same arguments were used to justify not taking Chris Johnson in the first round last year.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
2009 Stats: 1,391 rushing yards; 374 receiving yards ; 16 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 3rd
DSD Spin: MoJo’s consistency is reflected by the touches he gets in Jacksonville. Last year, Jones-Drew ran the ball over 300 times, caught 53 passes, and scored 16 times. If you have the number one pick in your fantasy league, you should at least look at this guy. If that league happens to be PPR, look at him twice.

2. Adrian Peterson (MIN)
2009 Stats: 1,389 rushing yards; 436 receiving yards ; 18 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 2nd
DSD Spin: Don’t be thrown by Chester Taylor’s departure or by Toby Gerhart’s arrival. Peterson is Option A in every running scenario, and only injury will keep that trend from continuing this fall.

1. Chris Johnson (TEN)
2009 Stats: 2,006 rushing yards; 503 receiving yards ; 16 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 1st
DSD Spin: Slightly higher risk and slightly higher reward than the Vikings’ Peterson. Were all of those touchdowns outside the twenty yard-line a fluke? Maybe, but do you really want to find out the hard way?

On the bubble: Jonathan Stewart, Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Brown, Jamaal Charles, and Matt Forte.

Fantasy Quick Draw: Top 15 Wide Receivers

In the spirit of fantasy football season, here is an article I wrote for Digital Sports Daily last week, which can also be found here.

Here are the Top Fifteen wide receivers to target in your upcoming Fantasy draft.  Statistics and points rankings are courtesy of ESPN.com, and are consistent with the scoring settings kept in ESPN standard leagues.

15. Vincent Jackson (SD)

2009 Stats: 68 receptions ; 1,167 receiving yards ; 9 TDs

2009 End of Season Rank: 9^th

DSD Spin: Jackson will miss at least a quarter of this season.  However, if you’re in a position to field a good starting squad and still snag him later in your draft as a gamble, it could pay off big time.

14. Sidney Rice (MIN)

2009 Stats: 83 receptions ; 1,312 receiving yards ; 8 TDs

2009 End of Season Rank: 8^th

DSD Spin: See Favre, Brett.

13. Anquan Boldin (BAL)

2009 Stats: 84 receptions ; 1,024 receiving yards ; 5 TDs

2009 End of Season Rank: 24^th

DSD Spin:  After an off-season trade, Boldin finds himself in a run-first offense with a quarterback that’s not exactly known for dialing it up.  Still, he’s an extremely talented Number 1 Receiver playing for a Super Bowl contender. Not the worst of situations.

12. Greg Jennings (GB)

2009 Stats: 68 receptions ; 1,113 receiving yards ; 4 TDs

2009 End of Season Rank: 20^th

DSD Spin: How much longer will Donald Driver haunt the dreams of Greg Jennings owners? 

11. Calvin Johnson (DET)

2009 Stats: 67 receptions ; 984 receiving yards ; 5 TDs

2009 End of Season Rank: 23rd

DSD Spin: Injuries and an inexperienced quarterback kept Megatron in check last year.  He’s gotten healthy, and the Lions have certainly improved their offense in the offseason, but a lot of Johnson’s return to prominence depends on Matthew Stafford’s arm.

10. Steve Smith (CAR)

2009 Stats: 65 receptions ; 982 receiving yards ; 7 TDs

2009 End of Season Rank: 18^th

DSD Spin: Smith didn’t play Week 17, but in his final three games of the season, the Carolina wideout caught 3 TD passes, averaged 100 yards receiving, and established a great rapport with young QB Matt Moore.  Smith is still likely a viable WR1 in most leagues.

9. Marques Colston (NO)

2009 Stats: 70 receptions ; 1,074 receiving yards ; 9 TDs

2009 End of Season Rank: 13^th

DSD Spin:  There are a lot of guys to feed in that Saints offense, but Colston is a deep threat as well as a red-zone target.  He’ll get his.

8. DeSean Jackson (PHI)

2009 Stats: 63 receptions ; 1,167 receiving yards ; 12 TDs

2009 End of Season Rank: 4^th

DSD Spin: A change under center, a relinquishing of some kick returning duty, and an impending contract squabble are all reasons to be wary of D-Jax in 2010.

7. Miles Austin (DAL)

2009 Stats: 81 receptions ; 1,320 receiving yards ; 11 TDs

2009 End of Season Rank: 3rd

DSD Spin: Last year, Miles Austin had 5 catches for 81 yards and one measly touchdown after the first quarter of the season.  But from Week 5 on, the young Cowboy averaged slightly less than a touchdown per week, all while racking up 1,239 receiving yards.  The jury is still out on whether or not he can even come close to duplicating that kind of production this season.

6. Roddy White (ATL)

2009 Stats: 85 receptions ; 1,153 receiving yards ; 11 TDs

2009 End of Season Rank: 7^th

DSD Spin:  White started and finished strong in 2009, and may be one of the more underappreciated wide receivers in the NFL. 

5. Brandon Marshall (MIA)

2009 Stats: 101 receptions ; 1,120 receiving yards ; 10 TDs

2009 End of Season Rank: 10^th

DSD Spin:  Marshall is a guy who will single-handedly win weeks for you in head-to-head PPR leagues, and if he doesn’t wear out his welcome in South Beach like he did in the Rocky Mountains, he’ll be that guy in every league.

4. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)

2009 Stats: 97 receptions ; 1,092 receiving yards ; 13 TDs

2009 End of Season Rank: 5^th

DSD Spin: With all the talk of a 2010 decline due to Matt Leinart’s inheritance of quarterbacking duties in the desert and the loss of Anquan Boldin, owners would do well to remember that Fitz is one of the Cards’ most dependable red-zone targets.

3. Reggie Wayne (IND)

2009 Stats: 100 receptions ; 1,264 receiving yards ; 10 TDs

2009 End of Season Rank: 6^th

DSD Spin: Wayne has been a model of consistency since the decline of the Marvin Harrison days in Indy, but will his unhappiness towards his contract affect that?

2. Randy Moss (NE)

2009 Stats: 83 receptions ; 1,264 receiving yards ; 13 TDs

2009 End of Season Rank: 2nd

DSD Spin: In a consensus “down” year last season, Moss tied Fitzgerald with the most TD grabs in the league while still racking up over 1,200 yards receiving. The dismal running back situation should ensure that Randy stays elite.

1. Andre Johnson (HOU)

2009 Stats: 101 receptions ; 1,569 receiving yards ; 9 TDs

2009 End of Season Rank: 1st

DSD Spin: He’s paid, he’s healthy, and he’s still number one. 

On the bubble: Mike Sims-Walker (JAX), Steve Smith (NYG), Chad Ochocinco (CIN), Dwayne Bowe (KC), and Michael Crabtree (SF).

Calling Out My Peers

Tonight, I was in attendance at Citizens Bank Park for Roy Oswalt's debut in red pinstripes. He did not dissapoint, with seven strong innings while working out of jams all night. Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge then put together impressive eighth and ninth innings, respectively. The Phillies came out victorious in a well-played 2-0 victory over the Dodgers.

As I am walking down the ramps after the game was over, I hear Eagles chants roaring down the ramp as well. As I shook my head, I heard others yelling back at the lost fans, "You're at a Phillies game!" I even saw a child, no older than eight, yell at them (much respect to that kid).

I became quite annoyed, embarrassed, and ashamed of some of my fellow Philadelphia fans. It is one thing to be singing the Eagles' fight song during the Scott Rolen/Terry Francona era in September. But this isn't 1999 anymore. The Phils didn't lose tonight. Heck, Brad Lidge didn't even allow a runner. Especially at a ballpark in which the Phillies would show Flyers highlights in between innings during the Stanley Cup. They have shown respect to other teams in the city, I would think our fanbase was smart enough to show some respect for our Fightins. But there are some clueless fans who are still going to go and yell such things. But I'm calling them out. Their "fanhood" is lacking. And I'm embarrassed for them. Violation.

WASTE PITCHES
Other random thoughts...

-Everyone is overreacting to the Todd Herremans Twitter fiasco. For those who aren't aware, Herremans, an Eagles offensive lineman, had tweeted about how he was dissapointed that a television series drew him in to enjoy two seasons and then introduced a homosexuality aspect to the next season. After talking with the Eagles, he then tweeted an apology. But I don't think that was necessary. He may disagree with the decision that someone has made to be a homosexual, but that doesn't mean he hates the person. To make a sports analogy, it is like disagreeing with a someone's choice to be a fan of the Cowboys, but that doesn't mean that one hates the person. You shouldn't have to apologize to that person.

-How about the job that Charlie Manuel has done this season? While the Phils seem to be in a competition with the Red Sox to see who can send more guys to the disabled list, Charlie has seen about forty different players enter games in Phillies' uniforms. He and his ballclub only sit two-and-a-half games back of the Atlanta Braves in the division. He may make some calls that get second-guessed occasionally but the guy doesn't get enough credit in my opinion.

-Is it crazy to say Cole Hamels should have fifteen wins?

--Dan