Hunter Pence: Righthanded Bat of Choice

Due to the fact that I've been on vacation all week, I've had a lot of time to stay glued to twitter, MLBTradeRumors, etc, etc. Perhaps too much. So let me get this out of the way before I say anything else: I'm very excited that Hunter Pence is a Philadelphia Phillie and I cannot wait to watch what is about to take place over the next few months.

We did give up a great package for a good player. The one prospect that really makes me uncomfortable about the trade is pitcher, Jarred Cosart. He was drafted in the late rounds a few years ago but really exploded in the Phils' minor league system. He throws a high nineties fastball with a decent curve and hasn't walked too many hitters. To me, the only thing keeping him from becoming a ML ace, is possible elbow problems. He throws across his body with a three-quarter arm slot. He shined in the futures game this year, striking out two in an inning of work. Here are his career minor league stats (courtesy baseball-reference.com): 203.2 INN, 181 K, 66 BB, 10 HR, and a 3.67 ERA. Pretty darn good for your first 200 innings of pro ball.

Jonathan Singleton, another player included in the deal, I'm a little more okay with trading. He is a firstbaseman by trade that the Phils tried to make an outfielder. It didn't really pan out as planned as he just hit better when he played first. And with Ryan Howard at first, there's no room for Singleton (who was still around 2-3 years away from seeing the big leagues). He's showed flashes of power and production as well as posted some decent on-base numbers. Josh Zeid, another player in the deal has posted some impressive strikeout totals since he was drafted but had posted a 5.65 ERA (BBR) this season. There's also a player to be named that rounds out the four prospects sent to Houston.

This brings me to Pence. From what I've seen of him, as well as what I've read about him over the past 72 hours, leads me to believe that the Phillies are a better team today because they added a good player. He improves our lineup on a day-to-day regular season basis but because of his slow bat, struggles against elite pitching. Once October rolls around, facing Tim Lincecum, Zack Grienke, or Yovani Gallardo may not look as different as it might have a few weeks ago. The goal of getting a righthanded hitting outfielder was to give Howard some protection in the five-hole. Pence may upgrade that slightly, but he strikes out a lot and doesn't walk too much. Something pitchers aren't afraid to go after.

His batting average may also be slightly deceiving, his batting average for balls in play (BABIP) is very high which contributes to his over .300 average. Michael Lewis described it in the book Moneyball that sooner or later the groundballs are going to go to the infielders and the texas leaguers are going hang up there long enough for someone to catch. Regression.

By no means am I saying that Hunter Pence sucks. There's a lot of great things to be said about the outfielder as well. But we won't dwell on all that because we're all about to see it all. I'll just say that my favorite part about Pence's game is that he's a ballplayer. He hustles hard and plays the game at full speed. Roy Oswalt said that he had an aura in the clubhouse as a rookie. That is someone that you want to have on your team. Ballplayers win (see Utley, Chase; Pedrioa, Dustin). And I sure hope that he gives us every chance to do just that.

Maybe I'm spoiled that Ruben Amaro has worked some great trades heavily favoring the Phillies over the past few years, I'm just not familiar with what a fair trade feels like. Maybe I'm too conservative when it comes to worrying about the distant future. But one thing I'm sure of is that the Phils are a better ballclub.

-Dan

No Such Thing as Superstition

So now I'm convinced. Being superstitious is a waste of time, it is not real. I never really thought that it would really make a difference but playing the game of baseball for my whole life gives way to giving in to superstitious habits now and then. So its only typical that I carried them over to watching my beloved Phillies. But to no avail, they've (the superstitious habits) failed me. Wearing certain shirts on certain days. Not wearing my alternate Phillies colored hat on gamedays. Not going on twitter during the game. How I sit during the game. Yea, all those tendencies failed me. They failed me last year when the Phils lost in the World Series and I bought into them again this year. What was I thinking?

It was as if I could help the Phillies win. As if I did something wrong when they lost. I screwed up the equilibrium in the universe that affected Citizen's Bank Park all the way from State College. I know it sounds ridiculous because it IS ridiculous. And now I'm done. Whatever is meant to be will happen (which is something I've also believed in since I can remember (I'm a hypocrite?)).

Guess what else I thought prevented the Phillies from doing well? Blogging. So for the few that had been to this top-notch blog before, that my buddy TJ and I started over the summer, I bet you were wondering where we had gone. Well, I've returned and am hopefully here to stay. Part of the absence was due to laziness and then a ridiculous amount of schoolwork. But when I did feel like blogging, I couldn't pull myself to do it because I was semi-convinced that it would prevent the Phils from doing well. Done with that, whatever is meant to be will happen. Which brings me to why Giants won this series.

First lets get this out of the way so you don't think my bias and bitterness is playing into the post: the Giants played really well and beat the Phils fair and square. They are the National League champions and I'm not taking that away from them. Congratulations and all that.

But there isn't one position player that I would rather have on the Philllies that is on the Giants. You could make a case for Buster Posey, but right now, at this point in their careers, give me Chooch from Monday to Sunday. On paper the Phils should have taken care of business in four or five games. The talent on each roster within each pitching staff is comparable, but at the plate, it isn't even close. Look at the lineups, Pat Burrell was hitting cleanup at one point for the Giants. He wouldn't even start for the Phillies. But games aren't settled on paper.

The Giants caught some breaks in this series. The Phils started off by hitting a few balls well off of Tim Lincecum but they were at fielders and playable. Cody Ross who didn't have a great average against the Phils in 2010 (in a handful of at-bats from being with Florida) was picked up in late-August. He was only picked up by San Francisco because they didn't want their division rival, Padres, to acquire him. What did he do this series? Just set the tone in game one with two homeruns off of the eventual 2010 Cy Young award winner, Roy Halladay. That's it. A game in which Halladay didn't get a called strike three that would have ended the fifth inning against Pat Burrell. Burrell then doubled off the wall to score a run and Juan Uribe then followed with a groundball single that scored Burrell's pinch runner, Nate Shierholtz. Tough loss.

In game three Cole Hamels made a good pitch with two outs that Babe Ross just hit into left field for an RBI single. The pitch was away and somehow Ross pulled it. Not especially good hitting but it worked out. Aubrey Huff then hit a seeing-eye groundball that just got past Chase Utley that scored another run. Later in the game, with two outs Utley misplayed a humpback liner to secondbase that was somehow ruled a single. Tough breaks. Tough dinky hits. Cole shouldn't have surrendered any runs that game but it happened.

Game four included Joe Blanton giving up his usual first inning run, this one on a RBI groundball single with two outs. Later in that game, Jayson Werth hit a ball right on the button with two men on and less than two outs that was directly to the rightfielder. Anywhere else in that spacious outfield, both runs would have scored. Neither runner ended up scoring. A couple innings later, when the Phils had the lead, Chad Durbin was facing Pablo Sandoval, who at the end of the season and thus far through the playoffs couldnt tell a baseball from a paperclip. His struggles were well documented by both television networks covering the games but he decided to remember how to hit just once with two men on, as he disposed of Durbin's fastball into the left-centerfield gap. The Phils would eventually chalk up a loss when the heaviest shortstop in the big leagues hit a walkoff sacrifice fly to cap a rally which was started by an Aubrey Huff seeing-eye groundball single. Bummer, or should I say Bumgarner.

image courtesy: Associated Press, yahoo.com

Which brings us to tonight's heartbreaker. The Phillies kept their game five momentum going right into game six as they were right on Jonathan Sanchez scoring two runs off of him in the first. But Sanchez, the pitcher, then singled right through Chase Utley's arms to start the third. After an Andres Torres single off the wall (one which Victorino almost made a great catch on) and a Freddy Sanchez sacrifice bunt, Aubrey Huff singled on a groundball that scored a run. With two outs, Roy Oswalt would then get Buster Posey to hit a tapper down the thirdbase line that Placido Polanco threw away. Game tied up. After the heavy shortstop, who was playing third, homered off the rock solid Ryan Madson to take the lead, the Phils looked like they had something cooking in the bottom half of the eighth. But Carlos Ruiz hit one right on the screws to Aubrey Huff who doubled up Victorino. If you watched, you know the rest of the story. It pains me to type it out.

Giving up groundball singles, hitting balls well that don't fall, and not hitting with runners on base basically sums up the series for the Phillies. They didn't get the two-out RBIs that they needed and the Giants caught some breaks. That's what happens when things are going well for a team, breaks. Heck, I'll admit the Phillies caught some in 2008 on the way to being World Champions. But now I know what it is like to be on the other end of things. It is saddening and it doesn't feel fair. But the game of baseball isn't exactly fair, which is why we love it.

State of the Phillies

No panic button, yet.

Momentum is an important companion to keep on your side. Coming into the All-Star break, the Phillies had the momentum and the "swagger" they've needed to spring them into playing winning baseball again. But, in a four game series against the below-average Cubs, the Phils lost three of four games. Roy Halladay, the ace of the pitching staff, was lit up for his worst start of the season and the offense is in a major funk. The only game they won in the series was handed to them by a circus inning lead by Cubs closer Carlos Marmol, who walked five in two-thirds of an inning.

While watching this club play, they don't seem like they're playing with any fight. Their at-bats aren't disciplined and their fielding has become sloppy, both aspects usually being strongsuits for the team. It looks as if they are trying to guess which pitch is coming and where the pitch is going to be, rather than just reacting. They're thinking too much in the field and making dumb mistakes. They don't seem relaxed and don't seem to be going out every night and just playing ball and letting their instincts take over. In the past, they've always seemed to play with a chip on their team shoulder. Whatever that is, they need to find it again, and fast. While I am not in panic mode quite yet, I'm getting dangerously close. It isn't just that they are losing games, it is the fashion in which they lose.

As bad as it seems, they are only five and a half games back in the division and only two games back in the wild card, and they seem to be hanging around. But play must improve if October baseball is in the plans. Here are a few concerns that will play into the fate of the 2010 Fightin' Phils...

Over the past three years or so, the front office has actually done a great job bringing in the right players during the season. Jamie Moyer, Tad Iguchi, Kyle Lohse, Joe Blanton, Matt Stairs, and Cliff Lee are among the talent Pat Gillick and Ruben Amaro have brought to Philadelphia midseason. Not many other clubs can make the same claim. Well, its time to make another move because this team needs a jolt.

Amaro has said countless times that if he had to choose between pitching and an infielder, he would trade for a pitcher. But with a big contract, I don't see Roy Oswalt joining the Phils unless the Astros and Ed Wade eat some of the contract money. Even then, I don't think the Phillies have minor league talent the Astros would be looking for. Take a look at another man in that rotation though. Yes, Brett Myers. With a smaller contract, Myers has been pitching very nicely for the irrelevant Astros. He's got personality, energy, and a filthy curveball. And I would take him back. I'd rather have him than the Jeremy Guthries and the Jake Westbrooks of the world.

I listen to a lot of sports talk radio. There are many calls about dealing Jayson Werth for a big time pitcher such as Oswalt or Dan Haren. But what would Werth do for the Astros or Diamondbacks, who clearly aren't going anywhere this season. A free agent after the season, Werth would most likely walk from either team and all they would earn is another first round pick. If I'm a team like Houston or Arizona, I want top prospects in return for my ace, so if Jayson Werth is involved in a deal, a third team would have to be involved.

But don't be so quick to ship Werth out of Philly just yet. Apart from being the only right handed power bat in the Phils lineup, he brings the whole package to the game everyday. He can run, field, and throw. He provides protection for Ryan Howard, and if he ever gets back to his most successful approach to the plate (driving the ball the other way) he would become the feared hitter he was last year.

Even if Werth were to be traded, who do you replace him with? John Mayberry Jr. isn't performing well in the minors. And if blue-chip prospect, Domonic Brown, were to be called up, it would look like a panic move and all the pressure would be put on the kid as the hopeful saviour. He wouldn't have been eased into the Majors and if he fails, it could screw with the kid's head, which is a dangerous thing to mess with in this sport.

That assumption may not be any more obvious with the Phillies right now. If they can't find a way to relax and play their game, making the playoffs is going to be a reach. Although, I've seen this team do some extraordinary things and they're a tough team to count out.