I won't ignore however, how strange it is that we have more quality teams than usual with respectable records that will be left out in the cold come playoff time this year. In the previous four seasons, there have only been two teams to win at least 10 games and miss the playoffs: the 2007 Cleveland Browns, and the 2008 New England Patriots. This year alone, I predict that we will have as many as four. My projections:
Category I: The First-Round Byes
1N. Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
2N. Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)
1A. New England Patriots (13-3)
2A. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
Yes, that's a '3' you see in Atlanta's loss column. Quickly:
- Matt Ryan is 19-1 at home in his career, and hasn't lost at the Georgia Dome in well over a year.
- The Falcons have won eight straight football games. Eight. That's half of a season.
- Surprisingly, the only team to ever beat Matt Ryan at home is the same squad that handed the Falcons their most recent defeat eight weeks ago...the Philadelphia Eagles. Even more surprisingly, those two games weren't really games at all; they were blowouts. If you combine the scores from the Eagles/Falcons matchup in '09 and the one eight weeks ago, you get a 65-24 aggregate.
Meanwhile in the AFC, it's New England and the mortals. With how well Vick is playing, it's a testament to how phenomenal Brady's been this year that he is still the favorite to be the MVP of the league. They're blowing decent teams out, beating good teams on the road, and haven't lost at home this season. I think the Pats will ice the AFC race this weekend in Buffalo, and their third-string guys will lose a close one Week 17 against Miami, for a final mark of 13-3. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, doesn't look nearly as strong. They're banged up, they're sputtering offensively, and really don't look any better than the other four AFC playoff teams. But, they possess two things that will work heavily in their favor: an easy final two games (CAR, @CLE) and the AFC North tiebreaker. For those reasons, the Steelers will enjoy a weekend off this January.
Category II: The Other Division Champions
3N. Chicago Bears (11-5)
4N. St. Louis Rams (8-8)
3A. San Diego Chargers (10-6)
4A. Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
The NFC West race (I guess that's the word for it), may have possibly hit rock bottom this past weekend with all four teams losing by a combined total of 64 points. Not only does this add additional embarrassment to a division that certainly doesn't need any more of it, but it leaves the door wide open for a 7-9 division "champion" to host a playoff game during Wild Card Weekend. Yikes. Maybe that possibility has me biased into picking the Rams to win out and represent the West with a cool 8-8 mark. Why not? They will host the Niners this weekend and then go to Qwest Field to take on the Seahawks on the final Sunday of the season. Both of those games are winnable. The other NFC division champion is already crowned, as the Bears dominated the Vikings Monday night to clinch the North. Since I don't see the Jets winning back-to-back road games in Pittsburgh and Chicago, I like the Bears this weekend. But then there's the showdown with Green Bay at Lambeau Field next week. Assuming Rodgers is healthy and can take care of business against the Giants this weekend, the Pack will be playing for their playoff lives and the Bears will be fighting to retain a first round bye. Are Jay Cutler and the Bears really going to go undefeated in their division this year? Maybe I'm still in denial that they're even a good team. Either way, I got the Packers.
It pains me to back off of my preseason stance that the Chiefs would go 10-6 and make the playoffs this year, especially since the Chiefs currently sit alone atop the AFC West and, in all likelihood, will win at least 10 games when it's all said and done. I went back and forth a million times with the idea of picking the Chiefs to win their final two games (TEN and OAK, both at home...) to finish 11-5 and play in a wild card game, but I honestly just don't feel it. Between Jeff Fisher trying to keep his job (or showing the rest of the league that he's qualified for a better one), Kerry Collins trying to prove he isn't washed up, and Jason Campbell's Raiders possibly playing for a playoff spot that they are somehow not mathematically eliminated from, there's too much friskiness to comfortably ride the Chiefs. The Chargers, meanwhile, get to feast on the checked out Bengals and the Denver Tebows to warm up for January. So, I'll go ahead and take the Chargers, and simultaneously cue myself up for a healthy dose of karma when the Chiefs win out or the Chargers lay an egg in Denver. In other news, are any Colts fans nervous about the game this weekend in Oakland? I would be. As mentioned above, the Raiders are still somehow in the playoff hunt and have been far less comedic this season than they have been in years past. That being said, it's logical to assume that Peyton & Co. get it done these next two Sundays, finishing 10-6 and AFC South champions with a tiebreaker over Jacksonville.
Did I just read that the Raiders are one win in Kansas City away from being the first team
in NFL history to go 6-0 in the division and miss the playoffs? Is that good?
in NFL history to go 6-0 in the division and miss the playoffs? Is that good?
Category III: The Wild Card Teams
5N. New Orleans Saints (11-5)
6N. Green Bay Packers (10-6)
5A. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
6A. New York Jets (11-5)
Monday night's showdown between Atlanta and New Orleans could be the game of the year. While the possibility of a Saints' repeat as NFC South champions seems bleak at best, New Orleans had been clicking on all cylinders before being bested by Baltimore this past weekend. And because of that, nothing is certain in New Orleans. Did you know that if they lose these next two to Atlanta and Tampa, they could lose their playoff spot to a Giants team that doesn't even have to run the table? That being said, I'm picking the Saints this weekend for one reason: I'm not sold on Atlanta's defense. The jury still has to be out on a secondary that let Carson Palmer's Bungles hang 32 on them, and they will certainly be earning their living this weekend against Drew Brees. Something about the Saints feels right here.
The Ravens and Jets are virtual locks for the AFC wild card spots at this point. Both would have to lose out for Jacksonville or Kansas City to sneak into the postseason, and both only have one game apiece left on their schedules that they have any business losing (The Jets are in Chicago this week, and the Ravens are in Cleveland for the Art Modell Bowl). You can't help but feel for the Jags, Chiefs, Giants, and Bucs, who have all strung together quality seasons, but are unlikely to qualify for the postseason despite boasting win totals that usually get your foot in the door. Doesn't it seem like there are a handful of teams that are supposedly "bad" and well out of playoff contention that are going to give the contenders fits in these last two weeks? Besides the Raiders/Colts and Ravens/Browns contests mentioned above, would it be crazy to think that the Bills don't steal one from the Pats or Jets? And, as an Eagles fan, I don't feel nearly as comfortably as I should with my team squaring off Week 17 against a 5-9 squad with Jon Kitna under center. That's the NFL in 2010. Anyway, with the projected matchups set, here are my early playoff picks:
WC: Packers over Bears, Saints over Rams, Chargers over Jets, Colts over Ravens
DIV: Falcons over Packers, Eagles over Saints, Patriots over Colts, Chargers over Steelers
CONF: Falcons over Eagles, Patriots over Chargers
SB: Patriots over Falcons
Let's hope I don't go four months without writing again.
-TJ
