*Below in an article I wrote for Digital Sports Daily that has yet to be published. I will probably have to edit it quite a bit before it goes up on that site, but I wanted to post the original version as well.*
Here are the Top Fifteen running backs to target in your upcoming Fantasy draft. Again, all statistics and points rankings are courtesy of ESPN.com, and are consistent with the scoring settings kept in ESPN standard leagues.
15. Ryan Mathews (SD)
2009 Stats: N/A
2009 End of Season Rank: N/A
DSD Spin: Ryan Mathews is a huge risk for fantasy owners. Norv Turner seems to believe the rookie can carry the majority of the load, but it will likely cost you a second or third round pick to get him. Mathews could cripple you just as easily as he could carry you.
14. LeSean McCoy (PHI)
2009 Stats: 637 rushing yards; 308 receiving yards ; 4 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 39th
DSD Spin: With Westbrook gone, McCoy is the guy in South Philadelphia. However, Pro Bowl fullback Leonard Weaver will certainly vulture some goal-line carries, and don’t forget that newcomer Mike Bell will need to be fed too.
13. Chris “Beanie” Wells (ARI)
2009 Stats: 793 rushing yards; 143 receiving yards ; 7 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 31st
DSD Spin: All signs indicate a breakout year for the former Buckeye. Kurt Warner’s retirement will force Coach Ken Whisenhunt to rely a bit more on a stud out of the backfield. And let’s just say “stud” isn’t a word I would associate with Tim Hightower.
12. Cedric Benson (CIN)
2009 Stats: 1,251 rushing yards; 111 receiving yards ; 6 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 15th
DSD Spin: Benson’s productive 2009 looks like an aberration until you remember one thing: he was supposed to be this good all along. If he can stay focused and out of trouble, there’s no reason Cedric Benson shouldn’t be able to replicate last season’s work.
11. Shonn Greene (NYJ)
2009 Stats: 541 rushing yards; 0 receiving yards ; 2 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 55th
DSD Spin: The Jets ran the ball over 600 times last season. A possibly washed up LaDainian Tomlinson could crash the party, but my guess is that Greene will be trusted with a sweeping majority of the carries, with a possible exception being in certain goal line packages.
10. Ryan Grant (GB)
2009 Stats: 1,253 rushing yards; 197 receiving yards ; 11 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 8th
DSD Spin: After a lackluster 2008, Ryan Grant bounced back last season by approaching 1,500 all-purpose yards and boasting a double-digit touchdown tally. The Pack drafted some promising offensive linemen in April, so Grant’s stock rises modestly.
9. DeAngelo Williams (CAR)
2009 Stats: 1,117 rushing yards; 252 receiving yards ; 7 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 13th
DSD Spin: The situation in Carolina is frustrating from a fantasy standpoint. An injury to Stewart would probably launch Williams into the Top Five, but as it stands right now, you can’t be too sure what you’re going to get from DeAngelo on Sundays.
8. Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)
2009 Stats: 1,108 rushing yards; 261 receiving yards ; 8 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 14th
DSD Spin: Mendenhall’s 2009 effort was impressive for a second year player, but it’s gut check time. The Steelers’ passing attack will be weak for at least the first four games, so let’s see what Rashard’s stats look like when defenses stack the line a bit more.
7. Michael Turner (ATL)
2009 Stats: 871 rushing yards; 35 receiving yards ; 10 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 22nd
DSD Spin: I don’t really see a whole lot to worry about concerning Turner’s production. That is, except injuries…and Jason Snelling…and Ovie Mughelli…and Tony Gonzalez at the goal line…wait a minute.
6. Steven Jackson (STL)
2009 Stats: 1,416 rushing yards; 322 receiving yards ; 4 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 10th
DSD Spin: Good player, bad team, blah, blah, blah. Steven Jackson may be the best fantasy running back in history that no one is ever excited to have.
5. Frank Gore (SF)
2009 Stats: 1,120 rushing yards; 406 receiving yards ; 13 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 6th
DSD Spin: Gore missed almost 3 full games last year, but was still able to score thirteen times to his owners’ delight. Newly acquired Brian Westbrook will certainly be used on some passing downs, but make no mistake, Frank Gore is getting the rock almost every time, and even more often in the red zone.
4. Ray Rice (BAL)
2009 Stats: 1,339 rushing yards; 702 receiving yards ; 8 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 4th
DSD Spin: The case against Rice: he’s small, last year was his only relevant fantasy year to date, and there are bigger guys in Baltimore’s backfield to handle goal line duties. The case for Rice: those same arguments were used to justify not taking Chris Johnson in the first round last year.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
2009 Stats: 1,391 rushing yards; 374 receiving yards ; 16 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 3rd
DSD Spin: MoJo’s consistency is reflected by the touches he gets in Jacksonville. Last year, Jones-Drew ran the ball over 300 times, caught 53 passes, and scored 16 times. If you have the number one pick in your fantasy league, you should at least look at this guy. If that league happens to be PPR, look at him twice.
2. Adrian Peterson (MIN)
2009 Stats: 1,389 rushing yards; 436 receiving yards ; 18 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 2nd
DSD Spin: Don’t be thrown by Chester Taylor’s departure or by Toby Gerhart’s arrival. Peterson is Option A in every running scenario, and only injury will keep that trend from continuing this fall.
1. Chris Johnson (TEN)
2009 Stats: 2,006 rushing yards; 503 receiving yards ; 16 TDs
2009 End of Season Rank: 1st
DSD Spin: Slightly higher risk and slightly higher reward than the Vikings’ Peterson. Were all of those touchdowns outside the twenty yard-line a fluke? Maybe, but do you really want to find out the hard way?
On the bubble: Jonathan Stewart, Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Brown, Jamaal Charles, and Matt Forte.
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