Due to the fact that I've been on vacation all week, I've had a lot of time to stay glued to twitter, MLBTradeRumors, etc, etc. Perhaps too much. So let me get this out of the way before I say anything else: I'm very excited that Hunter Pence is a Philadelphia Phillie and I cannot wait to watch what is about to take place over the next few months.
We did give up a great package for a good player. The one prospect that really makes me uncomfortable about the trade is pitcher, Jarred Cosart. He was drafted in the late rounds a few years ago but really exploded in the Phils' minor league system. He throws a high nineties fastball with a decent curve and hasn't walked too many hitters. To me, the only thing keeping him from becoming a ML ace, is possible elbow problems. He throws across his body with a three-quarter arm slot. He shined in the futures game this year, striking out two in an inning of work. Here are his career minor league stats (courtesy baseball-reference.com): 203.2 INN, 181 K, 66 BB, 10 HR, and a 3.67 ERA. Pretty darn good for your first 200 innings of pro ball.
Jonathan Singleton, another player included in the deal, I'm a little more okay with trading. He is a firstbaseman by trade that the Phils tried to make an outfielder. It didn't really pan out as planned as he just hit better when he played first. And with Ryan Howard at first, there's no room for Singleton (who was still around 2-3 years away from seeing the big leagues). He's showed flashes of power and production as well as posted some decent on-base numbers. Josh Zeid, another player in the deal has posted some impressive strikeout totals since he was drafted but had posted a 5.65 ERA (BBR) this season. There's also a player to be named that rounds out the four prospects sent to Houston.
This brings me to Pence. From what I've seen of him, as well as what I've read about him over the past 72 hours, leads me to believe that the Phillies are a better team today because they added a good player. He improves our lineup on a day-to-day regular season basis but because of his slow bat, struggles against elite pitching. Once October rolls around, facing Tim Lincecum, Zack Grienke, or Yovani Gallardo may not look as different as it might have a few weeks ago. The goal of getting a righthanded hitting outfielder was to give Howard some protection in the five-hole. Pence may upgrade that slightly, but he strikes out a lot and doesn't walk too much. Something pitchers aren't afraid to go after.
His batting average may also be slightly deceiving, his batting average for balls in play (BABIP) is very high which contributes to his over .300 average. Michael Lewis described it in the book Moneyball that sooner or later the groundballs are going to go to the infielders and the texas leaguers are going hang up there long enough for someone to catch. Regression.
By no means am I saying that Hunter Pence sucks. There's a lot of great things to be said about the outfielder as well. But we won't dwell on all that because we're all about to see it all. I'll just say that my favorite part about Pence's game is that he's a ballplayer. He hustles hard and plays the game at full speed. Roy Oswalt said that he had an aura in the clubhouse as a rookie. That is someone that you want to have on your team. Ballplayers win (see Utley, Chase; Pedrioa, Dustin). And I sure hope that he gives us every chance to do just that.
Maybe I'm spoiled that Ruben Amaro has worked some great trades heavily favoring the Phillies over the past few years, I'm just not familiar with what a fair trade feels like. Maybe I'm too conservative when it comes to worrying about the distant future. But one thing I'm sure of is that the Phils are a better ballclub.
-Dan
We did give up a great package for a good player. The one prospect that really makes me uncomfortable about the trade is pitcher, Jarred Cosart. He was drafted in the late rounds a few years ago but really exploded in the Phils' minor league system. He throws a high nineties fastball with a decent curve and hasn't walked too many hitters. To me, the only thing keeping him from becoming a ML ace, is possible elbow problems. He throws across his body with a three-quarter arm slot. He shined in the futures game this year, striking out two in an inning of work. Here are his career minor league stats (courtesy baseball-reference.com): 203.2 INN, 181 K, 66 BB, 10 HR, and a 3.67 ERA. Pretty darn good for your first 200 innings of pro ball.
Jonathan Singleton, another player included in the deal, I'm a little more okay with trading. He is a firstbaseman by trade that the Phils tried to make an outfielder. It didn't really pan out as planned as he just hit better when he played first. And with Ryan Howard at first, there's no room for Singleton (who was still around 2-3 years away from seeing the big leagues). He's showed flashes of power and production as well as posted some decent on-base numbers. Josh Zeid, another player in the deal has posted some impressive strikeout totals since he was drafted but had posted a 5.65 ERA (BBR) this season. There's also a player to be named that rounds out the four prospects sent to Houston.
This brings me to Pence. From what I've seen of him, as well as what I've read about him over the past 72 hours, leads me to believe that the Phillies are a better team today because they added a good player. He improves our lineup on a day-to-day regular season basis but because of his slow bat, struggles against elite pitching. Once October rolls around, facing Tim Lincecum, Zack Grienke, or Yovani Gallardo may not look as different as it might have a few weeks ago. The goal of getting a righthanded hitting outfielder was to give Howard some protection in the five-hole. Pence may upgrade that slightly, but he strikes out a lot and doesn't walk too much. Something pitchers aren't afraid to go after.
His batting average may also be slightly deceiving, his batting average for balls in play (BABIP) is very high which contributes to his over .300 average. Michael Lewis described it in the book Moneyball that sooner or later the groundballs are going to go to the infielders and the texas leaguers are going hang up there long enough for someone to catch. Regression.
By no means am I saying that Hunter Pence sucks. There's a lot of great things to be said about the outfielder as well. But we won't dwell on all that because we're all about to see it all. I'll just say that my favorite part about Pence's game is that he's a ballplayer. He hustles hard and plays the game at full speed. Roy Oswalt said that he had an aura in the clubhouse as a rookie. That is someone that you want to have on your team. Ballplayers win (see Utley, Chase; Pedrioa, Dustin). And I sure hope that he gives us every chance to do just that.
Maybe I'm spoiled that Ruben Amaro has worked some great trades heavily favoring the Phillies over the past few years, I'm just not familiar with what a fair trade feels like. Maybe I'm too conservative when it comes to worrying about the distant future. But one thing I'm sure of is that the Phils are a better ballclub.
-Dan
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